Forecasting is at the heart of most security analysis. This is completely understandable given stock prices and market index levels are supposed to reflect the present value of future earnings, but is only useful if the forecasts are reasonably accurate. As the old quip however notes, making predictions is hard, especially when they’re about the future.
So how do actual earnings compare to consensus forecasts?
Using American index data since 1980 there are two key observations. Firstly, consensus forward earnings often exceed the subsequent actual earnings. Secondly, actual earnings are more erratic than analysts’ consensus forecasts, particularly at the onset of bear markets.
S&P 500’s Earnings, Actual (12m “Trailing”) and Forward (12m “Consensus”)
Source: Leithner & Company Ltd
Investors should thus view consensus forecasts with some caution, and appreciate that seemingly attractive valuations based on forward PEs may actually be misleading, especially during periods of pending crises.
Method for graphing Actual to Forward earnings
‘Forward earnings’ is based on IBES data and shows analysts’ consensus since January 1980 of the forward earnings of the companies comprising the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. IBES i.e. The Institutional Brokers’ Estimate System, is a database that collates analysts’ estimates of the future earnings of publicly- traded American companies.
‘Actual’ earnings are based on data compiled by Standard & Poor’s and reflects the Index’s actual earnings.
To compare “like with like”, each month’s prospective earnings is matched to its actual earnings twelve months later e.g., consensus forward earnings in January 1979 (which is estimating what earnings would be in January 1980) is plotted against actual earnings in January 1980.
If you would like more information please call 1300 ELSTON or contact us.
This material has been prepared for general information purposes only and not as specific advice to any particular person. Any advice contained in this material is General Advice and does not take into account any person’s individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making an investment decision based on this advice you should consider whether it is appropriate to your particular circumstances, alternatively seek professional advice. Where the General Advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a financial product, you should obtain a Product Disclosure Statement (“PDS”) relating to the product and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. You will find further details of the service we provide and any cost to you within the Financial Services Guide. Any references to past investment performance are not an indication of future investment returns. Prepared by EP Financial Service Pty Ltd ABN 52 130 772 495 AFSL 325 252 (“Elston”). Although every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in this material, Elston, its officers, representatives, employees and agents disclaim all liability (except for any liability which by law cannot be excluded), for any error, inaccuracy in, or omission from the information contained in this material or any loss or damage suffered by any person directly or indirectly through relying on this information.
Following on from the reporting season, Co-Founder and Portfolio Manager Bruce Williams has provided a brief overview of the recent results and what that indicates for the portfolio positioning. Read more
The Australian Financial Review has recently named Elston Australian Emerging Leaders in their top performers 2023. Read the article to find out more. Read more
HUB24 announced the launch of a new whitepaper, ‘Directing the matrix: meeting the advice needs of high net worth clients’. Read now to get insights from Elston Head of Philanthropic Services Susan Chenoweth and many other experienced advisers. Read more
Investing in what you are passionate about, or even what you consume everyday, can give you an edge. Find out what local stock Elston Co-Founder Bruce Williams has in mind. Read more
What should advisers think about as they move to managed portfolios? Elston Head of Adviser Services Mark Smith shared his views on how to successfully make the transition. Read more
We all know Australia is the lucky country, but could it soon be the luckiest? Elston Co-founder Andrew McKie believes it may be possible, and advisers need to take heed. Read more
Andrew McKie joined 5 other industry leaders at LiveWire Live 2023 as they presented their shocking prediction for the future. What did he predict? And is it good news or bad news? Read more
Portfolio Manager Leon de Wet has provided a brief overview of the recent reporting season results and what that indicates for future earnings and the portfolio positioning. Read more
Are our two big supermarkets worth checking out? Read the latest Livewire Markets article to see what Elston Co-Founder and Portfolio Manager Bruce Williams thinks. Read more
Should investors buy AMP or bypass it? See what Elston co-founder and portfolio manager Andrew McKie thinks and find out how he’s feeling about the ASX100 in general. Read more
In this video, Portfolio Manager Leon de Wet provides his perspective on the key questions discussed in the recent quarterly asset allocation meeting. Read more
What makes Carsales such an attractive stock? Elston Portfolio Manager Bruce Williams examines the key drivers that are working for this digital marketplace both here and overseas. Read more
Last year, some bond indices fell into a black hole. Are good returns from fixed income investing still a galaxy far, far away? Or are there brighter days on the horizon? Read more
In the latest Livewire's edition of Buy Hold Sell, Andrew McKie talked about which ASX-listed stocks he would want to own (or not own) in a Goldilocks scenario. Read more
Elston Co-Founder Andrew McKie sat down with Han Lee from Livewire and Rob Crookston from WILSONS to discuss how they find “quality” companies on the ASX. Read more
Andrew McKie was asked to analyse three stocks that are widely perceived to have those rock-solid qualities and assess whether they have become overcrowded, and name one quality company in the recent Livewire interview. Read more
If you had a spare $10,000, how would you invest it? It's an interesting hypothetical and one that Elston Portfolio Manager Leon De Wet was happy to answer for Livewrire. Read the article to see his picks. Read more
Inflation has proven to be more stubborn than expected. And so, the Reserve Bank has had no choice but to keep increasing interest rates. What could this mean for company earnings and how might that flow through to portfolios? Read more
It’s tough getting selected for State of Origin. But it's tougher to be picked by the Elston Asset Management team. Read this article to learn more about the Elston investment process. Read more
Published on LiveWire
With volatility likely to come roaring back, here's what it means for your portfolio and some defensive stocks to consider. Read more
In this video, Portfolio Manager Leon de Wet provides his perspective on the key questions discussed in the recent quarterly asset allocation meeting. Read more